AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)
Suggestion: Baltimore Ravens (+7)
Sure, the Patriots have Playoff-tested Tom Brady, and the two-headed monster at tight end, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, but giving seven points to this Ravens team means that it's time for us to step up and invest. Make no mistake, Tom Brady makes the Patriots pick look enticing... He enjoyed yet another stellar season in 2011, and he is far and away a better QB than the Ravens Joe Flacco. But for all of the mystique, Pats backers need to face reality... this is not the same team as they were in the early 2000's. These Patriots have been defeated at home in the playoffs in the last two years, losing in the Divisional round to the Jets last year as 9-point favorites, and again to this same Raven team in 2010. Flacco isn't even close to Brady, but he doesn't have to be tomorrow, in fact the Ravens have won 2 road playoff games with Flacco at the helm since 2008, including an awful performance at Foxboro in 2010, the same game that the Ravens won handily, 33-14.
This year's Pats were fortunate enough to capitalize on +17 turnovers this year, which skews their statistics a bit. They were also fortunate in that they played in a week division, with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins. The Ravens AFC North sent three teams to the playoffs. Baltimore won all seven games against playoff teams, while the Pats went 2-2. The Ravens D continues to age but they are potent, giving up 4.9 yards per play, 32.2% conversions on 3rd down, and a 64.2 QB Rating in 2011. Still think that the Ravens need the 7 points? Consider that during the Patriots last 9 games, New England did not face a team that was over .500... Not one. Meanwhile the Ravens last nine games saw them match up with over .500 teams five times, going 4-1. The Patriots haven't seen an opponent this strong since early November, the Ravens have feasted on them, bet accordingly. You can find the Ravens line at more than +7, if you can find a site with the hook to +7.5 take it, otherwise a touchdown should still be more than enough cushion. This is a team that could very well win straight up and move on to the SuperBowl. Invest in the Baltimore Ravens (+7)
NFC Championship Game
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Suggestion: New York Giants (+2.5)
The Giants roll into San Francisco as short underdogs, and we expect them to move on the the Superbowl this afternoon. The Giants have transformed into a completely diferent team over the past month. We've seen teams do this before, rolling through the playoffs in the process, notably the Steelers in 2005, the Colts in 2006, and the Packers in 2011. Sitting at 7-7 in mid-December, their defensive front returned to health, and they rattled off two must-win games against the NY Jets, and the Dallas Cowboys, beating them by 30 points combined. In their Wild Card matchup they rolled over the Falcons 24-2 and beat the defending champion Packers in the Divisional round by a score of 37-20. That score was no mirage, the Giants roughed up the Packers from start to finish. San Francisco barely squeaked past the Saints last week, despite a +4 turnover differential against a team that needed to blitz to create pressure. The Giants front four can create significant pressure on their own. Drew Brees went 40/63 for 462 against the San Francisco defense. With Eli Manning having a career best regular season, we can see him picking apart the Niners as well, especially with three healthy receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham.
In their last meeting, San Francisco won by a touchdown, 27-20, but the Giants were thwarted on a late drive that ended deep in Niners territory. The Niners are 14-3, but how much can be attributed to the fact that they play in the subpar NFC West (Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis were a combined 17-31 in 2011). The Giants have an offense and defense that are peaking at the right time, a top-shelf quarterback in Manning, and key personnel still in place from their 2007 SuperBowl win. Alex Smith won his first playoff game last week, but Eli has gone 6-3 in the postseason, and proven that he can win road games in hostile territory. +2.5 is not a significant number of points, take them anyway, the Giants aren't going to need them. Invest in the New York Giants (+2.5)
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