NCAAB 01/26/12

ST. MARYS GAELS(19-2) @ LOYOLA MARYMOUNT LIONS(12-8)

Suggestion: St. Marys -6.5

Loyola Marymount may only have 12 wins on the year, but they've covered 7 straight games, a span that includes a close four point home loss to Gonzaga and a shocking 14 point road thrashing of BYU. St. Mary's has been even hotter, having won 9 straight, including a 21 point beat down of Gonzaga, and notched impressive 16 point victories over BYU, Northern Iowa and Missouri State.

Although Loyola Marymount has been playing well lately, there are concerns. They have several horrible losses this year, including a 24 point defeat at Morgan State, as well as losses to North Texas and Columbia, and more understandably, Middle Tennessee State and Harvard. In addition to the BYU win, Marymount also found a way to muster up a victory over a very strong Saint Louis team, after nearly falling to a bad Idaho State team in OT. To say they're an enigma would be understating it, no one knows which team will show up from day to day.

In addition to being much more consistent as a team, Saint Marys should enjoy a decent advantage in the paint. Marymount's leading rebounder averages a paltry 4.2 rpg, and they're 243rd in the country in defensive rebounding, while the Gaels had two players with over 15 boards last game and their leader, Rob Jones, averages over 10 rpg on the season. By comparison, they rank 21st in the country.

Another noteworthy statistic is that the Lions LEADER in FG% hits 42.7% (a dreadful mark that might be a record low for a team's category leader), and the team ranks 215th in the nation in FG%. Compare this to St. Marys, which ranks 28th in the country, and you have another sizable problem for Loyola to have to overcome, especially since they will not beat the Gaels to the boards to grab those missed shots.

Lastly, and importantly, there's really no home court advantage for the Lions. As a matter of fact, Marymount has been significantly better on the road, having compiled a 5-6 (4-5 ATS) home record in the process of being outscored, while the Gaels are 4-1 on the road. There's no mistaking Gersten Pavillion for Rupp Arena.

I expect a dynamite battle between the guards Anthony Ireland and Matthew Dellavedova, but in the end I think St. Marys will be too strong inside and will cover the -6.5.