Sunday, April 29, 2012 (Night Game)

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Suggestion: Washington Nationals (-117)

I capitalized in Gio Gonzalez last start, and I'm going to back him again tonight. Gonzalez is, to put it simply, playing out of his mind. Switching to the National League has been very good to him, as he has dominated in his last three starts; 20 innings, 21 strikeouts, 4 walks, and no runs! That is a hot streak worthy of our investment. The Dodgers have no experience against him yet, which should also work in his favor. The Nationals are on a losing streak, but all three losses are of the one-run variety. Dodgers starter Chris Capuano has pitched well enough of late, but was shelled in his last start against Washington, giving up 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings. That's enough for me to take the better starter, putting up some of the best numbers of his career. Invest in the Washington Nationals (-117)

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Sunday, April 29. 2012

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians
Suggestion: Cleveland Indians (+101)

No team has been more disappointing at the start of the 2012 season than the Los Angeles Angels. A huge offseason in terms of free-agent acquisitions has yielded no positive results thus far; LA is 7-14, and lighting bankrolls on fire all over the sports betting world. Albert Pujols, he of the $250 million dollar contract has yet to hit one home run in an Angels uniform. I'll bet he wishes that teammate Ervin Santana was pitching to him... Santana has given up a ridiculous 10 home runs in 23.2 innings! But it hasn't been just one bad game, he has given up at least two home runs in each of his four starts this year, all losses. Even worse, the Angels are not generating any offense when he's on the mound, scoring no runs over his last three starts... that's right, three consecutive doughnuts when Santana takes the mound. Derek Lowe's numbers aren't noteworthy, but he settled down in his last outing after his only rough start of the year. Adequate pitching should be enough to carry the day against an under-acheiving Angels team. Invest in the Cleveland Indians (+101)

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Tuesday, April 23, 2012

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
Suggestion: Washington Nationals (-129)

We're catching a nice price to back a Nationals squad that has rolled through the month of April, matching preseason expectations with a 12-4 record. Padres starter Clayton Richard has been lit up in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 11.1 innings. By contrast, Gio Gonzalez has piched phenomenally, with no earned runs, 15 strikeouts and 2 walks over his last two starts. With a rested and underrated bullpen to keep things from getting out of hand, I'm putting my wager on the better team, starter and closing staff. Invest in the Washington Nationals (-129)

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Monday, April 23, 2012

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Suggestion: St. Louis Cardinals (-106)

With a 1-5 record at home (4-12 overall), the Chicago Cubs are in no position to be a near pick 'em against St. Louis. The Cardinals without Albert Pujols have been disrespected by the marketplace since the start of the season. But all they do is win and keep winning, 11-5 overall including seven of ten on the road. Jaime Garcia has won only two of his four starts against Chicago, but all four were quality starts, giving up a total of seven earned runs in those games. A similar effort will be more than enough with a hotter team and the stronger bullpen. Invest in the St. Louis Cardinals (-106)

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Monday, April 23, 2012

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Suggestion: St. Louis Cardinals (-106)

With a 1-5 record at home (4-12 overall), the Chicago Cubs are in no position to be a near pick 'em against St. Louis. The Cardinals without Albert Pujols have been disrespected by the marketplace since the start of the season. But all they do is win and keep winning, 11-5 overall including seven of ten on the road. Jaime Garcia has won only two of his four starts against Chicago, but all four were quality starts, giving up a total of seven earned runs in those games. A similar effort will be more than enough with a hotter team and the stronger bullpen. Invest in the St. Louis Cardinals (-106)

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Saturday, April 21, 2012

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Suggestion: Philadelphia Phillies (-137)

I'm going to take Roy Halladay and the Phillies tonight against a hapless San Diego team in the late game tonight. While Halladay is an outstanding April pitcher, (4-1, 1.00 WHIP), and annihilated the Padres last year at Petco Park (8.2 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 14 strikeouts and 1 walk in his lone start) the pitching matchup is not what puts me in play tonight. San Diego has lost four straight, twelve of fifteen games this year, and are hitting .198 against right-handed pitchers this year. Of their last ten meetings, Philly has won nine, including six of seven at Petco Park, with San Diego being held to nine total runs in those seven contests. I'm betting on history to repeat itself again tonight, with another low scoring game, and Philly coming out on top tonight. Invest in the Philadelphia Phillies (-137)

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Friday, April 20, 2012

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Suggestion: Chicago White Sox (-110)

The Seattle offense here is the reason I am in play tonight. Many pundits had concerns about the Mariners run porduction before the season started, and they have had their problems with lefty pitchers this season, batting .189 against them. LHP Chris Sales will make his first start tonight against them, hardly an ideal situation for Seattle to put up runs on the board. With the better bullpen, and the history of doing well against the Mariners (The Sox have taken eight of their last ten), I'm backing the short favorite. Invest in the Chicago White Sox (-110)

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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Suggestion: Texas Rangers (-106)

The Rangers are on an early tear, ripping through a 5-game winning streak including last night's 18-3 sandblasting of the Red Sox. We'll take them tonight, even against Josh Beckett at home, as Derek Holland went 8-3 last year and 13-2 in night time games. The late innings will favor our play as well, as Texas boasts a top-flight bullpen, and Boston's staff was worked to the tune of 7 innings last night after Jon Lester's poor starting performance. Invest in the Texas Rangers (-106)

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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Suggestion: New York Mets (+106)

We're getting a bonus for backing one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, who has shown over his last two starts that he has returned from injury to the All-Star form that he has shown in the past... I know where I'm putting my money. Atlanta starter Randall Delgado may have pitched well in his first start of the year, but he is matched up against Johan Santana, and and I don't see why Atlanta is favored here. Aside from the starting pitcher mismatch, the Mets have the better record, and the Atlanta bullpen is a disaster, giving up a .356 batting average against, worst in the majors. Santana has started April consistently well over the years, going 6-2 with a 1.57 ERA from 2009-11, and he has played well at Turner Field, 2-1 in 4 starts with a .203 average allowed and a 1.12 WHIP. At an underdog price, I'll invest in the Mets with Santana, especially against an overvalued Atlanta squad. Invest in the New York Mets (+106)

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Monday, April 16, 2012

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Suggestion: Philadelphia Phillies (-108)

Two immensely talented power pitchers square off in this late game. While the reputations for both hurlers are nearly equal, I'm taking the one who is playing his best right now, and fading one who has quietly put up some average stats of late. Over his last two games, San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has pitched incredibly poorly (11 ER, 14 hits over 7.2 innings). And while some of that can be attributed to the fact that the games were played in Coors Field and Chase Field, let's not forget that Lincecum put up a pedestrian 6-7 record at home in 2011. In his last 10 starts dating to last season, the Giants have lost 8 games, burning those who consistently bet on him. While many pitchers tend to start well in April, Lincecum isn't one of them. But Roy Halladay is, going 4-1 with a 47-7 strikeout to walk ratio in April of 2011. He has been flat-out dominant over his last two starts, giving up a single run in 15.0 innings, allowing only 7 hits in two Philadelphia wins. And tonight, we have a chance to back him for nearly even money, and take advantage of the fact that both the Philles (50-31 in 2011) and Halladay (11-3 last year) are more than comfortable playing on the road. Additionally, the Giants have serious concerns with their bullpen, making this investment even more attractive. Invest in the Philadelphia Phillies (-108)

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Saturday, April 14, 2012

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Suggestion: Milwaukee Brewers (+103)

This is my second game backing Shaun Marcum this season, and I'm grabbing value with him at an underdog price tag. Although he gave up two home runs in his last outing, it was a solid performance as he held the Cubs to a .227 average against, with 6 strikeouts and no walks. Atlanta's Mike Minor was roughed up by the Mets in his 2012 debut, giving up six runs over five innings before getting pulled. Marcum has handled Atlanta well in the past, with a .213 average against, 13 strikeouts and 2 walks in 2 starts. He has a history of starting well early in the season as well (12-3 in April and May from 2009 on). Milwaukee is batting .305 against lefties so far, and I'm willing to bet that their success continues tonight. Invest in the Milwaukee Brewers (+103)

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Thursday, April 12, 2012

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Suggestion: Miami Marlins (-110)

Philly starter Joe Blanton is back after spending much of 2011 injured. With his performance a huge question mark, I'll back Miami's Mark Buehrle, who has spent many productive years in the AL in his first start agains Philly. Invest in the Miami Marlins (-110)

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Suggestion: Arizona Diamondbacks (-134)

My basis for this play is simple, San Diego is no match for Arizona starter Ian Kennedy. Kennedy is never more dominating than when he plays the Padres; consider his 5-0 record, 2.01 ERA, a 59 to 8 strikeout to walk ratio and a 0.93 WHIP against them. San Diego is no juggernaut, and well take this relatively short price to grab one of baseball's best pitchers against the team he plays his best games against. Invest in the San Diego Padres (-134)
R.J. at 1:47 PM

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Wednesday, April 12, 2012

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
Suggestion: Los Angeles Angels (-172)

This game is outside of my usual price range, but I'll take it tonight and wager on one of baseball's best starters, and against a truly anemic offense. Jered Weaver is a top-tier starter, and he's at his best in the months of March and April, when hitters are still behind pitchers. The numbers don't lie, he is flat out dominant early on; 11-1, 1.83 ERA, .211 average allowed from before may from 2009-2011. His last outing was more of the same, 8 innings, 4 hits, 10 K's, no walks. Anything close to that performance tonight will win this game. And the Twins bring very little offensive firepower to the table, with a total of six runs in four games, all losses. And with manager Ron Gardenhire juggling lineups in hopes of creating some kind of spark, the realization is setting in that there will be a long season ahead for the Twins. Before it becomes too pricey to bet against them, I'll gladly take a small payout with this high-percentage play. Invest in the Los Angeles Angels (-172)

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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-112)
Suggestion: New York Mets (-112)

The Nationals have become, along with the Marlins, the NL's team du jour, a team that the public considers to be on the rise. Thus they are getting a ton of respect early in the year. The Mets, who were supposed to take 2012 as a rebuilding year, are the lone undefeated team left in the NL. We'll take them as a light favorite today to keep on winning at home.

Besides the unexpected run from NY, including a solid start by much-maligned David Wright (7 hits, 4 walks, 12 at-bats) much of this wager rests on starter Dillon Gee. He hit the 'wall' big time last year, as his pre and post All-Star stats suggest (8-3, 2.76, .222 before; 5-3, 5.25, .277 after). He also held the Nationals bats to a .222 average while winning both starts against them last year, while Detweiler performed poorly against the Mets, 0-1, 8 ER in 10 innings. I'm banking on the Mets to tear off win number 5 tonight, and stay undefeated. Invest in the New York Mets (-112)

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Monday, April 9, 2012

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Suggestion: Milwaukee Brewers (-131)

The pitching matchup tonight will between Shawn Marcum and Chris Volstad makes this small favorite worth putting money behind. Volstad is an imposing 6'8", 230 pound hurler, but Marcum is flat out the better pitcher, with a 3.23 strikeouts to walk ratio over the past 3 seasons (1.94 for Volstad). Volstad pitched with the Marlins previously, and had a tough time in Wrigley Field (3 starts, 0-1, 5.63 ERA), while Marcum has pitched very well in the historic park last year, going 8 innings, with 7 strikeouts and no walks. Invest in the Milwaukee Brewers (-131)

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Suggestion: Chicago White Sox (+158)

The Texas Rangers have a strong team with as good a chance of returning to the postseason as any other franchise in baseball. But it is still April, and their lineup has yet to show us anything remarkable this early in the season, with a total of six runs in their first two games. A slight edge to Gavin Floyd in tonight's pitching matchup makes this the kind of sizable underdog I like to put my money behind.

Floyd is a solid starter, with a 1.16 WHIP and a 151 to 45 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the 2011 season. His numbers improve away from U.S. Cellular Field, where his ratio improves to 83 to 18. Last year he held the Rangers to a .125 average over 14 innings with a 0.64 ERA. Matt Harrison has trouble under the lights (4.13 ERA, .278 average allowed), and gave up 6 earned runs in 11.1 against the Sox last year. That's enough for me to place a wager, and hopefully collect a nice payout with the underdog. Invest in the Chicago White Sox (+158)

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-113)
Suggestion: Detroit Tigers (-113)

It's only two games into a very long season, but the Tigers are bringing the hot bats early. April is usually a tough month for batters, but we watched them blister the Sox Jon Lester and Josh Beckett in back to back games. Beckett was assaulted yesterday in a 10-0 loss giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs in 4 2/3 innings. While Lester lost 3-2, the final score fails to reflect that the Tigers left seventeen runners on base! Our pitching matchup here gives us a nice situation for Detroit's Max Scherzer who did poorly in one game last year against the Sox, but went 4-0 last April. Boston's Clay Buchholz is a slow starter in April, over the past three years, this is the only month in which he has a losing record, and gives up more hits than innings pitched. He does relatively poorly in the daytime as well, with a 5-7 record and a 1.56 WHIP (vs. 25-7, 1.17 at night). Against this Tigers lineup, with clear skies at Comerica Park, we'll watch the shelling continue and the Detroit roll over Buchholz on their way to a third straight victory. Invest in the Detroit Tigers (-113)

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-113)
Suggestion: Detroit Tigers (-113)

It's only two games into a very long season, but the Tigers are bringing the hot bats early. April is usually a tough month for batters, but we watched them blister the Sox Jon Lester and Josh Beckett in back to back games. Beckett was assaulted yesterday in a 10-0 loss giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs in 4 2/3 innings. While Lester lost 3-2, the final score fails to reflect that the Tigers left seventeen runners on base! Our pitching matchup here gives us a nice situation for Detroit's Max Scherzer who did poorly in one game last year against the Sox, but went 4-0 last April. Boston's Clay Buchholz is a slow starter in April, over the past three years, this is the only month in which he has a losing record, and gives up more hits than innings pitched. He does relatively poorly in the daytime as well, with a 5-7 record and a 1.56 WHIP (vs. 25-7, 1.17 at night). Against this Tigers lineup, with clear skies at Comerica Park, we'll watch the shelling continue and the Detroit roll over Buchholz on their way to a third straight victory. Invest in the Detroit Tigers (-113)

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April 6, 2012

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Suggestion: St. Louis Cardinals (+110)

We are backing the World Champs again today, grabbing another underdog price as we take advantage of Jaime Garcia in this particular setting. While Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo has excellent statistics at home, he is only 13-15 as a daytime pitcher (31-14 at night). Garcia has been spectacular in April over the last three years with a 5-1 record, a 1.60 ERA allowing a .208 average against. Against the Cardinals, Gallardo is 1-6 with a 4.91 ERA since 2009. Again, I'll take my chance with the Cardinals and the bonus. Invest in the St. Louis Cardinals (+110)


Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Suggestion: Oakland Athletics (-144)

We are looking at a stark difference in how these two starting pitchers perform in home and away settings. Seattle starter Jason Vargas is 16-15 with a 3.86 ERA .247 at home, 6-16 with a 4.86 ERA and .277 away since 2009. He's winless in five lackluster starts at Oakland. By contrast Brandon McCarthy brings was 6-3/2.65/.249 at home last year. Against Seattle he went 1-3 last year, but a closer look at the numbers shows a 39:4 strikeout to walk ratio with an outstanding 0.71 WHIP. Oakland is favored, and has a much better chance of winning than this price reflects. Invest in the Oakland Athletics (-144)

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St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

MLB Opening Day, 2012
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-174)
Suggestion: St. Louis Cardinals (+162)

The Miami Marlins are riding into today's game on a wave of hype. For a team that has shied away from spending in the past, owner Jeffrey Loria has put up $191 million into free agents Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Heath Bell. The franchise is starting anew, leaving Sun Life Stadium, their home since 1993 into a new state of the art ballpark, a curious addition for a club that could never pull decent attendance numbers, even in their most successful campaigns. However, at the start of the game, it won't matter all that much, and even with ace Josh Johnson returning to the mound after spending most of last season injured, these two teams are a lot closer than a -174 payout would suggest.

Early in the season, much of outcome of these games rests on the starting pitching. There are few better in the game than Miami's Josh Johnson. He is flat-out dominating, and would be the ace of most teams in the league. But few starting pitchers take advantage of April more than Kyle Lohse. Over the past three years he is 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA, 24 K's to 5 walks, with an opponent batting average of .173 and a WHIP of 0.73. That is the kind of pitcher we can back in this situation, especially with the hefty underdog price.

St. Louis, even with the loss of Albert Pujols, are still the reigning World Champions. They won't likely make it to the postseason to defend their title, but we can expect them to be a little chippy early into a season in which no one expects all that much of them. With April surprises fairly common, we'll back the World Series winners, and hopefully pad our bankrolls with an early season bonus. Invest in the St. Louis Cardinals (+162)

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