NFC Divisional Playoff

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Suggestion: New York Giants (+7.5)

Green Bay was my pick to win the SuperBowl at the beginning of the season, and I noted how they were in excellent position to roll through the regular season. The Packers did not disappoint, going 15-1 and scoring a prolific amount of points along the way. However, in this matchup today there are some factors working against them that make this a favorable wager on the Giants.

First, while this Packer team has a better record than last year's version, their defense is not nearly on the same level. While the offense has taken other teams out of the game early, there is nothing here to indicate that they can shut teams down when they are giving up 4.7 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per attempt on the season and rank last in the NFL in overall defense. This begs the question, 'how will this defense handle playoff-caliber offenses', which leads to our second factor in this play...

The Pack have only played three playoff teams in the past 10 weeks, Detroit twice, and these Giants once. They won the first game against the Lions 27-15, a game in which the Lions were down by 7 points at the half before Ndamokung Suh was thrown out for unsportsmanlike conduct, and Matthew Stafford threw for three uncharacteristic interceptions. The second game against the Lions was a 45-41 shootout in Week 17 that had no playoff implications, so that has no bearing on our play. Their Week 13 win against the Giants was heading into overtime before some defensive lapses by New York. Green Bay was unable to stop Giants receivers Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks in that game, and with Mario Manningham returning after a productive game against the Falcons in the Wild Card last week, there is no reason to think that Eli Manning and his passing offense won't have a highly productive game.

Third, the Packers prolific offense is dealing with a huge off the field tragedy this week, the accidental death of the son of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son earlier this week. The focus needed for Green Bay to prepare for a playoff game has undoubtedly been fragmented.

Fourth, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers just completed his best season yet, posting 45 TD's, 6 INT's and 9.27 yards per attempt. However, Rodgers has not seen any ingame action since Christmas after sitting for week 17 and resting on the bye week. For an offense that relies on timing, so much time off the field will not help with their rhythm.

Fifth, much like last year's Green Bay team, the Giants are peaking at the right time. New York beat the Jets and roughed up the Cowboys in must-win games to get in the playoffs. Then they torched Atlanta last week 24-2. The Giants under Tom Coughlin have been mercurial and streaky for years, and when they are rolling, they are simply a juggernaut. We have seen this before as they steamrolled through four consecutive underdog wins to the SuperBowl in 2007, a slightly above average regular season team that peaked at the right time. With some of the same faces from that team still on the roster, including Eli Manning who just finished a career-best 2011, New York can certainly keep it within a touchdown, and it would be no surprise if they move on to face San Francisco next week. Invest in the New York Giants (+7.5)