SuperBowl XLVI New York Giants at New England Patriots

SuperBowl XLVI New York Giants at New England Patriots
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-3)
Suggestion: New York Giants (+3)

The basis for this pick can be simplified by this one premise; that in five of the past six SuperBowls the team that covered the spread was the one that transformed themselves at the end of the regular season from a mediocre team into a contending team. This year, the New York Giants are that team, they are the better overall team, and we can even grab them at an underdog price.

New England appears to be the hotter team in this matchup, they are riding a ten-game winning streak including six double-digit margins of victory. But look at the quality of their opponents during their streak; they faced only two playoff teams (Denver twice, and Baltimore) and a slate of also-rans. Even worse, until facing Joe Flacco in the AFC Championship Game they did not see one 'above-average' quarterback. While a ten-game run against NFL-competition is impressive, we absolutely need to qualify that when most of those wins came against Vince Young and Tyler Palko-level field generals.

The Giants have won five straight, but their run has come against far more challenging competition; beating the Jets and Dallas in two must-win games, shut down a talented Atlanta team without allowing them a single offensive score, destroyed the 15-1 Green Bay Packers, on the road no less, and then made the cross-country trip to San Francisco, and won against the top-defensive team in the NFL under adverse weather conditions. I am far more impressed with the Giants five-game winning streak, than the Patriots ten-game run.

While the Pats show up for this game with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick making their record setting 5th SuperBowl appearance together, this team has few holdovers from their 2007 team. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin are in their second showing in the title game, but several key players remain from their 2007 Championship team, including Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Chris Snee, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs and Corey Webster, a strong intangible which I beleive hasn't been factored into the line.

The Giants transformed into a dominant team in part due to key players returning to health over the last few weeks of the season. During this time, we've seen the Patriots run into injury issues. All-world tight end Rob Gronkowski obviously comes to mind first, as we all watched his ankle injury in high-definition two weeks ago. Even if he plays, we can't see him being at 100%, but what of Tom Brady's issues? Lost in the injury talk to "Gronk" is the fact that Brady didn't look sharp last game. SuperBowl standout Deion Branch, one of Brady's favorite targets, has had trouble from a nagging knee injury. The Giants corps of Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks should be able to run wild against a Pats pass defense that gave up 6.9 yards per attempt on the road throughout the season, and has resorted to starting receivers in pass coverage to compensate for their injury issues.

We've seen time and again in recent playoff history how a team can get hot at the end of the season, and transform into a Super-Bowl contender late in the season. In 2005, the Steelers came out of nowhere, as a 6th-seed, winning three consecutive road games in the playoffs. In 2006, the Indianapolis Colts had arguably the NFL's worst rushing defense, yet after the return of key defensive players shut down three formidable running offenses, including the Chicago Bears to win it all. In 2008, Kurt Warner and the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals caught fire at the end of the season, came within a minute of winning the SuperBowl and easily covered the spread. Last year the Green Bay Packers regained key players late in the season and beat Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, Matt Ryan and the 14-2 Falcons, and the Chicago Bears all on the road before besting the Pittsburgh Steelers for the title. Of course, in 2007 the New York Giants came out of nowhere to play a nail-biter in week 17 against the undefeated Patriots 38-35, and then won three consecutive road games to set up a rematch in the SuperBowl, with Eli Manning and his team improbably beating the 18-win juggernaut. Setting that game aside, I believe the wrong team is favored today, take the points, and that the better team, the New York Giants, will win this game outright. Invest in the New York Giants (+3)