NCAAB 01/26/12

ST. MARYS GAELS(19-2) @ LOYOLA MARYMOUNT LIONS(12-8)

Suggestion: St. Marys -6.5

Loyola Marymount may only have 12 wins on the year, but they've covered 7 straight games, a span that includes a close four point home loss to Gonzaga and a shocking 14 point road thrashing of BYU. St. Mary's has been even hotter, having won 9 straight, including a 21 point beat down of Gonzaga, and notched impressive 16 point victories over BYU, Northern Iowa and Missouri State.

Although Loyola Marymount has been playing well lately, there are concerns. They have several horrible losses this year, including a 24 point defeat at Morgan State, as well as losses to North Texas and Columbia, and more understandably, Middle Tennessee State and Harvard. In addition to the BYU win, Marymount also found a way to muster up a victory over a very strong Saint Louis team, after nearly falling to a bad Idaho State team in OT. To say they're an enigma would be understating it, no one knows which team will show up from day to day.

In addition to being much more consistent as a team, Saint Marys should enjoy a decent advantage in the paint. Marymount's leading rebounder averages a paltry 4.2 rpg, and they're 243rd in the country in defensive rebounding, while the Gaels had two players with over 15 boards last game and their leader, Rob Jones, averages over 10 rpg on the season. By comparison, they rank 21st in the country.

Another noteworthy statistic is that the Lions LEADER in FG% hits 42.7% (a dreadful mark that might be a record low for a team's category leader), and the team ranks 215th in the nation in FG%. Compare this to St. Marys, which ranks 28th in the country, and you have another sizable problem for Loyola to have to overcome, especially since they will not beat the Gaels to the boards to grab those missed shots.

Lastly, and importantly, there's really no home court advantage for the Lions. As a matter of fact, Marymount has been significantly better on the road, having compiled a 5-6 (4-5 ATS) home record in the process of being outscored, while the Gaels are 4-1 on the road. There's no mistaking Gersten Pavillion for Rupp Arena.

I expect a dynamite battle between the guards Anthony Ireland and Matthew Dellavedova, but in the end I think St. Marys will be too strong inside and will cover the -6.5.

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AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games

AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)
Suggestion: Baltimore Ravens (+7)

Sure, the Patriots have Playoff-tested Tom Brady, and the two-headed monster at tight end, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, but giving seven points to this Ravens team means that it's time for us to step up and invest. Make no mistake, Tom Brady makes the Patriots pick look enticing... He enjoyed yet another stellar season in 2011, and he is far and away a better QB than the Ravens Joe Flacco. But for all of the mystique, Pats backers need to face reality... this is not the same team as they were in the early 2000's. These Patriots have been defeated at home in the playoffs in the last two years, losing in the Divisional round to the Jets last year as 9-point favorites, and again to this same Raven team in 2010. Flacco isn't even close to Brady, but he doesn't have to be tomorrow, in fact the Ravens have won 2 road playoff games with Flacco at the helm since 2008, including an awful performance at Foxboro in 2010, the same game that the Ravens won handily, 33-14.

This year's Pats were fortunate enough to capitalize on +17 turnovers this year, which skews their statistics a bit. They were also fortunate in that they played in a week division, with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins. The Ravens AFC North sent three teams to the playoffs. Baltimore won all seven games against playoff teams, while the Pats went 2-2. The Ravens D continues to age but they are potent, giving up 4.9 yards per play, 32.2% conversions on 3rd down, and a 64.2 QB Rating in 2011. Still think that the Ravens need the 7 points? Consider that during the Patriots last 9 games, New England did not face a team that was over .500... Not one. Meanwhile the Ravens last nine games saw them match up with over .500 teams five times, going 4-1. The Patriots haven't seen an opponent this strong since early November, the Ravens have feasted on them, bet accordingly. You can find the Ravens line at more than +7, if you can find a site with the hook to +7.5 take it, otherwise a touchdown should still be more than enough cushion. This is a team that could very well win straight up and move on to the SuperBowl. Invest in the Baltimore Ravens (+7)

NFC Championship Game
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Suggestion: New York Giants (+2.5)

The Giants roll into San Francisco as short underdogs, and we expect them to move on the the Superbowl this afternoon. The Giants have transformed into a completely diferent team over the past month. We've seen teams do this before, rolling through the playoffs in the process, notably the Steelers in 2005, the Colts in 2006, and the Packers in 2011. Sitting at 7-7 in mid-December, their defensive front returned to health, and they rattled off two must-win games against the NY Jets, and the Dallas Cowboys, beating them by 30 points combined. In their Wild Card matchup they rolled over the Falcons 24-2 and beat the defending champion Packers in the Divisional round by a score of 37-20. That score was no mirage, the Giants roughed up the Packers from start to finish. San Francisco barely squeaked past the Saints last week, despite a +4 turnover differential against a team that needed to blitz to create pressure. The Giants front four can create significant pressure on their own. Drew Brees went 40/63 for 462 against the San Francisco defense. With Eli Manning having a career best regular season, we can see him picking apart the Niners as well, especially with three healthy receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham.

In their last meeting, San Francisco won by a touchdown, 27-20, but the Giants were thwarted on a late drive that ended deep in Niners territory. The Niners are 14-3, but how much can be attributed to the fact that they play in the subpar NFC West (Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis were a combined 17-31 in 2011). The Giants have an offense and defense that are peaking at the right time, a top-shelf quarterback in Manning, and key personnel still in place from their 2007 SuperBowl win. Alex Smith won his first playoff game last week, but Eli has gone 6-3 in the postseason, and proven that he can win road games in hostile territory. +2.5 is not a significant number of points, take them anyway, the Giants aren't going to need them. Invest in the New York Giants (+2.5)

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NFC Divisional Playoff

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Suggestion: New York Giants (+7.5)

Green Bay was my pick to win the SuperBowl at the beginning of the season, and I noted how they were in excellent position to roll through the regular season. The Packers did not disappoint, going 15-1 and scoring a prolific amount of points along the way. However, in this matchup today there are some factors working against them that make this a favorable wager on the Giants.

First, while this Packer team has a better record than last year's version, their defense is not nearly on the same level. While the offense has taken other teams out of the game early, there is nothing here to indicate that they can shut teams down when they are giving up 4.7 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per attempt on the season and rank last in the NFL in overall defense. This begs the question, 'how will this defense handle playoff-caliber offenses', which leads to our second factor in this play...

The Pack have only played three playoff teams in the past 10 weeks, Detroit twice, and these Giants once. They won the first game against the Lions 27-15, a game in which the Lions were down by 7 points at the half before Ndamokung Suh was thrown out for unsportsmanlike conduct, and Matthew Stafford threw for three uncharacteristic interceptions. The second game against the Lions was a 45-41 shootout in Week 17 that had no playoff implications, so that has no bearing on our play. Their Week 13 win against the Giants was heading into overtime before some defensive lapses by New York. Green Bay was unable to stop Giants receivers Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks in that game, and with Mario Manningham returning after a productive game against the Falcons in the Wild Card last week, there is no reason to think that Eli Manning and his passing offense won't have a highly productive game.

Third, the Packers prolific offense is dealing with a huge off the field tragedy this week, the accidental death of the son of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son earlier this week. The focus needed for Green Bay to prepare for a playoff game has undoubtedly been fragmented.

Fourth, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers just completed his best season yet, posting 45 TD's, 6 INT's and 9.27 yards per attempt. However, Rodgers has not seen any ingame action since Christmas after sitting for week 17 and resting on the bye week. For an offense that relies on timing, so much time off the field will not help with their rhythm.

Fifth, much like last year's Green Bay team, the Giants are peaking at the right time. New York beat the Jets and roughed up the Cowboys in must-win games to get in the playoffs. Then they torched Atlanta last week 24-2. The Giants under Tom Coughlin have been mercurial and streaky for years, and when they are rolling, they are simply a juggernaut. We have seen this before as they steamrolled through four consecutive underdog wins to the SuperBowl in 2007, a slightly above average regular season team that peaked at the right time. With some of the same faces from that team still on the roster, including Eli Manning who just finished a career-best 2011, New York can certainly keep it within a touchdown, and it would be no surprise if they move on to face San Francisco next week. Invest in the New York Giants (+7.5)

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