NCAAB 02/21/12

Georgetown @ Seton Hall
Suggestion: Georgetown -1

There's no doubt the public will be all over the Hoyas here, as this seems to be a weak line involving a traditional powerhouse versus a traditional also-ran. Seton Hall has been better than advertised this year, going 15-8 overall, but are still below .500 in the Big East. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 20-5 overall and an impressive 10-4 in conference. Georgetown has been better both offensively and defensively and after a tough OT loss at Syracuse the Hoyas have won 2 in a row while the Pirates come in having lost 7 out of their last 10. Georgetown is the hotter team, the better team, and I'm risking some cheddar on the Hoyas to cover a pick 'em spread.

Kent St -1.5 @ Miami (OH)
Suggestion: Kent St -1.5

Here we go with the dreaded mid-major road favorite that seems to come in as often as Donald Trump drinks bottles of trucker's urine to get high from the excised meth. Which means rarely. As usual, this one looks great for Kent State on paper. They have the much better record, 19-7 vs. 8-17, the better mark in conference, 9-3 vs 4-8, and already beat Miami at home. They're even better on the road than Miami has been at home. As a matter of fact Miami is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Golden Flashes are scoring an astounding 11 points per game more than the RedHawks. Really, there's nothing here that would point to Miami Ohio winning this game, other than the microscopic chance that Wally Szczerbiak dies prior to tip-off and his ghost haunts the gym and helps Miami in a weird "Angels in the Outfield" sort of way. But I doubt it, Szczerbiak looks like a racehorse. He'll probably live at least another 6 months. Take the Golden Flashes in the small line.

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NCAAB 02/16/12

West Virginia @ Pittsburgh
Suggestion: Pittsburgh -3

There's no doubt that Pitt has been a disappointment this year, going 9-12 ATS and 4-9 in the conference. They've put together a pretty ugly resume, having been blown out at home by Rutgers, losing to Wagner and Long Beach State, and come into tonight's match-up having lost two in a row to Seton Hall and South Florida. To put it mildly, they have been shit. Even Orchard Bank wouldn't give them any credit. But they already beat West Virginia on the road and the Mountaineers have lost 5 out of their last 6. Neither team is where they thought they'd be, but at least Pitt has been somewhat decent at home, going 10-5, while the Mountaineers have only won twice on the road. In a close spread in what should be a low scoring slug fest, give me the home team.

Arizona @ Washington St
Suggestion: Arizona -2

Arizona has the decidedly better overall record, are 4 games better in Pac-10 play, and have won 5 out of their last 6, including road wins at Stanford and Cal. Washington State come into this game only 5-8 in conference and have gone 2-4 since Faisal Aden was lost to a knee injury. Just three weeks ago Arizona beat them by 24, drilling 15 three-pointers and holding the Cougars to under 35% from the field. While things won't be so bad for Washington State this time, I expect Arizona will be able to squeak out a cover on the road.

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NCAAB 02/15/12

Chattanooga @ Appalachian State
Suggestion: Appalachian State -4.5

App State comes into this game with the negligibly better overall record, the better conference record and a 7-5 record at home, while Chattanooga is yet to win on the road (0-12). In their meeting in January Chattanooga eeked out a two point victory in Tennessee, but they clearly benefited from some home cooking as they went to the line 25 times to App State's 9, and outscored them by 12 from the charity stripe. I wouldn't expect nearly that type of discrepancy with the game moving to Boone, and I expect the Mountaineers to cover a close line.

Temple @ Saint Bonaventure
Suggestion: Temple -1.5

Saint Bonaventure has had a hell of a year at home, going 9-1, but taking a look under the hood points to a temple victory. The Owls have the better overall record, are two games better in conference, are an impressive 7-3 on the road, and come into this game having won 8 in a row. They've won 11 in a row against the Bonnies, and have covered 10 out of those 11 games. They beat them by 28 points just last month. Saint Bonaventure is an improving squad, but can they improve by 26 points in 4 weeks to cover this spread? It's possible, but I'm betting against it.

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NCAAB 02/14/12

Buffalo @ Kent State
Suggestion: Kent St -4

These teams have been fairly even this year. They both have similar records overall (Bufalo is 16-6, Kent St is 18-6), and in conference (Buffalo is 9-2, Kent St is 8-3). They're scoring and allowing nearly identical PPG, and both come into this matchup shooting 45% from the field. When they played at Buffalo in January, the Bulls won by a point. So there's not a lot separating these two teams. Kent State has been very solid at home, compiling an 11-2 record and outscoring opponents by an average of 12 PPG. The last time they played Buffalo was aggressive and getting the calls at home, marching to the charity stripe 31 times to Kent State's 14. But with this game now in Ohio, those numbers should even out and Kent St should cover a close spread.

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NCAAB 02/12/12

Illinois @ Michigan
Suggestion: Michigan -5.5

Michigan is 13-0 at home this season and hold both a better overall record and conference record than Illinois. Michigan has already beaten Wisconsin, Michigan State and Indiana at home, while Illinois has struggled on the road, going 2-5, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Michigan has the advantage both offensively and defensively, and with a small line we're going Red Dawn style and rolling with the Wolverines.

Stanford @ USC
Suggestion: Stanford -5.5

There's really no overstating how awful USC has been this year. They're 6-19 overall and 8-16 ATS (2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games). They're 1-11 in the conference and only 4-10 at home. They're 1-9 in their last 10. They've averaged 53 PPG (shooting 39% from the field) and are decimated by injuries. They've lost at home to a putrid Arizona State team by 9 points and lost at home to Colorado by 24, despite being favored in both those games. In their last game Cal blew them out by 26.

Stanford, while not without their own flaws, comes into this game averaging nearly 20 points more per game and have managed a .500 conference record, which makes them a decent bet to cover 5.5 here.

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NCAAB 02/09/12

Loyola Marymount @ Portland State
Suggestion: Loyola Marymount -3

Sometimes it feels like "Groundhog Day" around here, and here we are again taking a small road favorite with a mountain of stats in their favor. And while we've missed on these lately, the cream usually rises to the top. Not that Marymount could ever be considered cream, more like curdled milk, but compared to Portland they're slightly less likely to make you vomit.

Marymount comes in with the much better record (15-9 while Portland is 6-18), the better conference record (8-3 vs 3-8) and are 7-2 on the road while Portland is 3-7 at home. Portland is actually being outscored at home by an average of 8 points per game. There are advantages on both sides of the ball for Marymount, and although Portland played them close at the end of January, I expect Marymount will cover the 3 on the road in Rose City.

BONUS PICK
Denver @ Florida Atlantic
Suggestion: Denver +1

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NCAAB 02/08/11

Southern Miss @ UAB
Suggestion: Southern Miss -2

After losing three small-lined road favorites in a row, we're due for a break here, and Southern Miss should be the team to reverse our course. The big numbers we're looking at here are the overall records. Southern Miss is 20-3 while UAB is 9-13. Breaking that down into conference records still doesn't help UAB's cause, as they're 4-5 in C-USA while Southern Miss is dominating the conference and comes into this game with a 7-1 record. Even at home UAB is below .500 at 5-7, while SM has been very good on the road, going 7-2. Southern Miss is also red hot, having won 9 out of their last 10, with the only loss being a 2 point defeat at Memphis. Ride the lightning and invest in Southern Miss as a tiny favorite.

St. Bonaventure @ UMass
Suggestion: Umass -4

UMass has the better overall record, the better conference record, and are undefeated at home. They've pretty much been a team that wins the games they're supposed to win and loses the games they're supposed to lose. They rarely rise or fall to the level of their opponent, they are what they are, a decent mid-conference team who plays much better at home. There are a few match-up issues that are reason for concern, mainly that St. Bonaventure is a slightly better team in terms of fundamentals, and UMass comes in with 2 injuries that could affect their depth, but given the small line we're taking a chance with the Minutemen.

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NCAAB 02/07/12

Creighton @ Evansville
Suggestion: Creighton -5.5

Well here we are riding another road favorite, a habit that we're not proud of, but one that we just can't quit. Yet again this game looks great on paper. Creighton is 21-3 while Evansville is below .500. Creighton is 11-2 in conference, while Evansville is 6-7. Creighton has a much better offense and a much better defense. They're ranked #1 in the country in FG%, shooting over 51% per game, #1 in the country in 3 point shooting percentage and #7 in PPG. Evansville, meanwhile, is #292 in the country in PPG allowed. Creighton has advantages all over the court, other than Evansville holding an insignificant free throw shooting edge. Creighton has beaten them heads up 6 times in a row and 9 times out of the last 10. There's nothing here that indicates Evansville will cover the spread. That being said, this game falls right before Creighton has a huge match up with Wichita State, so there's always the chance that they sleepwalk through this one, much like Missouri did last night at Oklahoma. But with so many indicators in the Blue Jays' favor, I'm laying the points and taking Creighton to win by at least 6.

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NCAAB 02/06/11

Missouri Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Suggestion: Missouri -5

To be honest this doesn't look like it will be much of a contest. Mizzou has a better record by 7.5 games, they're 8-2 in conference while Oklahoma is 3-7. On average they're scoring 9 ppg more than OK while allowing 4 ppg less. They already beat Oklahoma this year by 38 points. They've won 7 out of their past 8 games while Oklahoma comes in having dropped 7 out of their last 10. Mizzou has a huge advantage at the guard spot and Oklahoma has yet to find a reliable compliment to Andrew Fitzgerald. Coming off a big win against Kansas, this has the potential to be a trap game for Missouri, one they could overlook. But with such a large advantage on paper, and with a hot team in a reasonably small line, I'm rolling the dice on the Tigers -5.

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NCAAB 02/05/12

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS @ ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

Suggestion: Illinois -5.5

Illinois has the better record overall and are 12-1 at home, having only dropped a close contest with Wisconsin. Northwestern, on the other hand, are 1-5 on the road, being outscored by an average of 12 points, while Illinois has defeated opponents at home by the same average margin. Illinois has already defeated Northwestern on the road and hold a decided defensive advantage over the Wildcats, holding opponents to 40% shooting and less than 61 ppg. When also taking into account several injuries that will affect Northwestern's depth, I expect the Illini to win this one by at least 6.

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SuperBowl XLVI New York Giants at New England Patriots

SuperBowl XLVI New York Giants at New England Patriots
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-3)
Suggestion: New York Giants (+3)

The basis for this pick can be simplified by this one premise; that in five of the past six SuperBowls the team that covered the spread was the one that transformed themselves at the end of the regular season from a mediocre team into a contending team. This year, the New York Giants are that team, they are the better overall team, and we can even grab them at an underdog price.

New England appears to be the hotter team in this matchup, they are riding a ten-game winning streak including six double-digit margins of victory. But look at the quality of their opponents during their streak; they faced only two playoff teams (Denver twice, and Baltimore) and a slate of also-rans. Even worse, until facing Joe Flacco in the AFC Championship Game they did not see one 'above-average' quarterback. While a ten-game run against NFL-competition is impressive, we absolutely need to qualify that when most of those wins came against Vince Young and Tyler Palko-level field generals.

The Giants have won five straight, but their run has come against far more challenging competition; beating the Jets and Dallas in two must-win games, shut down a talented Atlanta team without allowing them a single offensive score, destroyed the 15-1 Green Bay Packers, on the road no less, and then made the cross-country trip to San Francisco, and won against the top-defensive team in the NFL under adverse weather conditions. I am far more impressed with the Giants five-game winning streak, than the Patriots ten-game run.

While the Pats show up for this game with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick making their record setting 5th SuperBowl appearance together, this team has few holdovers from their 2007 team. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin are in their second showing in the title game, but several key players remain from their 2007 Championship team, including Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Chris Snee, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs and Corey Webster, a strong intangible which I beleive hasn't been factored into the line.

The Giants transformed into a dominant team in part due to key players returning to health over the last few weeks of the season. During this time, we've seen the Patriots run into injury issues. All-world tight end Rob Gronkowski obviously comes to mind first, as we all watched his ankle injury in high-definition two weeks ago. Even if he plays, we can't see him being at 100%, but what of Tom Brady's issues? Lost in the injury talk to "Gronk" is the fact that Brady didn't look sharp last game. SuperBowl standout Deion Branch, one of Brady's favorite targets, has had trouble from a nagging knee injury. The Giants corps of Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks should be able to run wild against a Pats pass defense that gave up 6.9 yards per attempt on the road throughout the season, and has resorted to starting receivers in pass coverage to compensate for their injury issues.

We've seen time and again in recent playoff history how a team can get hot at the end of the season, and transform into a Super-Bowl contender late in the season. In 2005, the Steelers came out of nowhere, as a 6th-seed, winning three consecutive road games in the playoffs. In 2006, the Indianapolis Colts had arguably the NFL's worst rushing defense, yet after the return of key defensive players shut down three formidable running offenses, including the Chicago Bears to win it all. In 2008, Kurt Warner and the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals caught fire at the end of the season, came within a minute of winning the SuperBowl and easily covered the spread. Last year the Green Bay Packers regained key players late in the season and beat Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, Matt Ryan and the 14-2 Falcons, and the Chicago Bears all on the road before besting the Pittsburgh Steelers for the title. Of course, in 2007 the New York Giants came out of nowhere to play a nail-biter in week 17 against the undefeated Patriots 38-35, and then won three consecutive road games to set up a rematch in the SuperBowl, with Eli Manning and his team improbably beating the 18-win juggernaut. Setting that game aside, I believe the wrong team is favored today, take the points, and that the better team, the New York Giants, will win this game outright. Invest in the New York Giants (+3)

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